Supply & Overhang Monitor
SpaceX Lock-Up Monitor
When restricted SPCX shares become eligible to trade, how much each unlock adds to free float, how large it is relative to typical daily volume, and the index-demand view as index weight climbs.
Analysis View
Freely Trading Now
13.9%
1.82B of 13.08B total common
Still Locked
86.1%
11.25B shares
Next Unlock
Aug 20, 2026
180-day lock-up holders — Class A · +2.5% · 3.3 days to absorb
Class A O/S (potential)
56.4%
7.38B as Class B converts on sale
Trailing ADV window
Earnings-date estimates
Several releases key off “the second full trading day after results.” Those dates are estimates until announced — adjust them to see the schedule shift. Announced dates are locked to the actual release date.
Model an underwriter waiver
Goldman Sachs (on behalf of the underwriters) can release a lock-up early at its discretion — not predictable from the filing. Enter an announced waiver to recompute the schedule.
Supply over time
Free Float
Share of total common eligible to trade, the price trigger did not fire (confirmed from realized prices). Scheduled and earnings-linked steps are deterministic.
Free float steps up at each unlock; the forward portion reflects the price-trigger assumption. The dashed line is potential Class A shares outstanding as Class B converts 1:1 on sale (a ceiling — it materializes only as holders actually sell). The dotted line is the fully-diluted ceiling (shares outstanding plus granted options/RSUs). The solid line is the SPCX daily close (right axis).
Beyond outstanding shares
Option & RSU Overhang
Dilutive awards are not counted in shares outstanding, but add Class A-equivalent supply when exercised or settled and sold. This sits above the lock-up schedule — the dotted ceiling on the chart above.
+645.2M
4.9% of shares outstanding · fully diluted ≈ 104.9%
| Stock options outstanding | 133.8M A · 358.2M B | 492.0M |
| RSUs outstanding (3/31/2026) | 128.5M A · 931K B | 129.4M |
| RSUs granted after 3/31/2026 | 23.8M A | 23.8M |
| Granted awards (overhang) | 645.2M |
Plus 323.3M (2.5%) reserved-but-ungranted plan capacity (A&R 2024 Plan reserve, A&R 2017 ESPP reserve), shown for context — no holder yet, so excluded from the overhang figure.
Options and RSUs are excluded from shares outstanding but add Class A-equivalent supply when exercised/settled and sold (Class B converts 1:1). Timing depends on vesting and exercise, so these sit above the lock-up schedule rather than on a fixed date.
Forward schedule
Unlock Timeline
Date-gated steps are deterministic; earnings-linked steps use announced results dates where known and estimates otherwise; the price trigger's outcome is confirmed from realized prices. Dates marked waivable are the contractual maximum — Goldman Sachs may release earlier.
| Release | Holder class | Class | Shares | % of S/O | Free float after | Days of ADV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Earnings-linkedAug 6, 2026+20% — 2nd trading day after Q2 2026 results (FERD) | 180-day lock-up holders — Class A | A | 938.5M | +7.2% | 11.4% | 11.0 |
ScheduledAug 20, 2026+7% — 70 days | 180-day lock-up holders — Class A | A | 328.5M | +2.5% | 13.9% | 3.3* |
ScheduledSep 9, 2026+7% — 90 daysContractual maximum — waivable | 180-day lock-up holders — Class A | A | 328.5M | +2.5% | 16.4% | 3.3* |
ScheduledSep 24, 2026+7% — 105 daysContractual maximum — waivable | 180-day lock-up holders — Class A | A | 328.5M | +2.5% | 19.0% | 3.3* |
ScheduledOct 9, 2026+7% — 120 daysContractual maximum — waivable | 180-day lock-up holders — Class A | A | 328.5M | +2.5% | 21.5% | 3.3* |
ScheduledOct 24, 2026+7% — 135 daysContractual maximum — waivable | 180-day lock-up holders — Class A | A | 328.5M | +2.5% | 24.0% | 3.3* |
Earnings-linkedNov 9, 2026(est.)+28% — 2nd trading day after Q3 2026 resultsContractual maximum — waivable | 180-day lock-up holders — Class A | A | 1.31B | +10.0% | 34.0% | 13.4* |
ScheduledDec 8, 2026remainder — 180-day cliffContractual maximum — waivable | 180-day lock-up holders — Class A | A | 797.7M | +6.1% | 40.1% | 8.1* |
Earnings-linkedFeb 8, 2027(est.)+20% — 2nd trading day after Q4 2026 resultsContractual maximum — waivable | Extended lock-up holders (until Q2 2027 results) — Class A | A | 256.6M | +2.0% | 42.1% | 2.6* |
Earnings-linkedFeb 8, 2027(est.)+20% — 2nd trading day after Q4 2026 resultsContractual maximum — waivable | Extended lock-up holders (until Q2 2027 results) — Class B | B | 95.3M | +0.7% | 42.8% | 1.0* |
ScheduledMar 18, 2027+10% — 280 daysContractual maximum — waivable | Extended lock-up holders (until Q2 2027 results) — Class A | A | 128.3M | +1.0% | 43.8% | 1.3* |
ScheduledMar 18, 2027+10% — 280 daysContractual maximum — waivable | Extended lock-up holders (until Q2 2027 results) — Class B | B | 47.7M | +0.4% | 44.2% | 0.5* |
Earnings-linkedMay 10, 2027(est.)+20% — 2nd trading day after Q1 2027 resultsContractual maximum — waivable | Extended lock-up holders (until Q2 2027 results) — Class A | A | 256.6M | +2.0% | 46.1% | 2.6* |
Earnings-linkedMay 10, 2027(est.)+20% — 2nd trading day after Q1 2027 resultsContractual maximum — waivable | Extended lock-up holders (until Q2 2027 results) — Class B | B | 95.3M | +0.7% | 46.9% | 1.0* |
ScheduledMay 17, 2027+10% — 340 daysContractual maximum — waivable | Extended lock-up holders (until Q2 2027 results) — Class A | A | 128.3M | +1.0% | 47.8% | 1.3* |
ScheduledMay 17, 2027+10% — 340 daysContractual maximum — waivable | Extended lock-up holders (until Q2 2027 results) — Class B | B | 47.7M | +0.4% | 48.2% | 0.5* |
ScheduledJun 12, 2027366-day cliff — 100%Contractual maximum — waivable | Founder (Elon Musk) — Class B | B | 5.22B | +39.9% | 88.1% | 53.2* |
ScheduledJun 12, 2027366-day cliff — 100%Contractual maximum — waivable | Founder (Elon Musk) — Class A | A | 849.5M | +6.5% | 94.6% | 8.7* |
ScheduledJun 12, 2027+20% — 366 daysContractual maximum — waivable | Extended lock-up holders (until Q2 2027 results) — Class A | A | 256.6M | +2.0% | 96.6% | 2.6* |
ScheduledJun 12, 2027+20% — 366 daysContractual maximum — waivable | Extended lock-up holders (until Q2 2027 results) — Class B | B | 95.3M | +0.7% | 97.3% | 1.0* |
Earnings-linkedAug 9, 2027(est.)remainder — 2nd trading day after Q2 2027 resultsContractual maximum — waivable | Extended lock-up holders (until Q2 2027 results) — Class A | A | 256.6M | +2.0% | 99.3% | 2.6* |
Earnings-linkedAug 9, 2027(est.)remainder — 2nd trading day after Q2 2027 resultsContractual maximum — waivable | Extended lock-up holders (until Q2 2027 results) — Class B | B | 95.3M | +0.7% | 100.0% | 1.0* |
ConditionalNot within horizonClass A close ≥ $175.50 for 5 of 10 trading days ending on the anchor dateDid not trigger — confirmed from realized prices; rolled into the cliff | 180-day lock-up holders — Class A | A | 469.2M | +3.6% | — | — |
Days of ADV = shares released ÷ trailing average daily volume. * Forward events use the most recent trailing ADV; volume is not projected. “Est.” dates are earnings-linked estimates. Class B shares convert 1:1 to Class A on sale.